ChatGPT Will Be the Next Big Growth Channel: Platform Cycle Theory and Growth Strategies for the AI Era

Deep insights from Reforge founder Brian Balfour

🎧 Listen to the original episode: Why ChatGPT will be the next big growth channel - Lenny's Podcast with natural voice translation on NativePod

Introduction: The Growth Dilemma in the AI Era

Over the past few years, entrepreneurs have been complaining about the same problem: growth is becoming increasingly difficult.

SEO is saturated, paid advertising costs are skyrocketing, and word-of-mouth has become exceptionally challenging. Traditional growth channels have reached their limits, while new opportunities have been slow to emerge.

But according to Reforge founder and former HubSpot VP of Growth Brian Balfour, we're standing at the edge of a historic turning point. ChatGPT is likely to become the next massive growth channel, and this opportunity window is only 6 months.

The Four-Step Platform Development Cycle Theory

Through studying the development history of platforms like Facebook, Google, and iOS, Brian discovered an astonishing pattern: all platforms follow the same four-step development cycle.

Step 0: Competitive Environment Formation

• Market consensus on a new category (e.g., social, mobile, AI chat)
• 5-7 major players in fierce competition
• No clear winner, but everyone knows this field is important

Step 1: Moat Identification and Platform Opening

• One player identifies the true moat (e.g., Facebook's social graph)
• To quickly build the moat, they need help from third-party developers
• Open the platform, providing value exchange: you add use cases to my platform, I provide you with new distribution channels

Step 2: Platform Open Period (Golden Era)

• Third-party developers flood in
• Startups can quickly gain users and growth
• This is when historically successful companies are born (e.g., Zynga on Facebook)

Step 3: Platform Closure and Monetization

• Platform begins restricting third-party access
• Either completely shut down or develop their own first-party applications
• Reduce organic distribution, push paid mechanisms

Why ChatGPT Will Become the Next Growth Channel

1. Moat Already Identified: Context and Memory

ChatGPT has already identified the true moat of AI platforms: context and memory.

• Model capabilities themselves don't differ much
• The real difference lies in who has more user context
• The more you use it, the richer the memory, the more personalized the output
• This creates a positive feedback loop

2. Clear Leading Advantages

• Largest user base (at least 10x that of Claude)
• Highest retention and engagement rates
• Already invested heavily in data connectors
• Possesses the elusive "smile curve" (retention increases over time)

3. Third-Party Platform Launch Imminent

Brian predicts ChatGPT will launch a third-party platform within 6 months, signals include:

• Hiring for "agent platform" related positions
• Establishing priority partnerships with major companies like HubSpot
• Already launched general-purpose agent mode

How to Seize Opportunities in This New Channel

For Startups: All-In Approach

• Cannot diversify investments: Choose ChatGPT and go all-in
• Scarce resources: Attention, time, and funding are all limited
• High risk, high reward: Early entrants will receive disproportionate returns

For Mature Companies: Multi-line Layout

• Can lay out on multiple platforms simultaneously
• Wait for clear winners to emerge before increasing investment
• But avoid waiting too long and missing opportunities

Evaluation Criteria

1. User retention and engagement (more important than user numbers)
2. User quality and monetization capability
3. Value exchange mechanism
4. Scale and momentum

Historical Lessons: Why You Must Participate in This Game

Prisoner's Dilemma

Even if you don't want to participate, your competitors will. This isn't a choice, it's a must:

• If HubSpot doesn't integrate with ChatGPT, other CRMs will
• Customer expectations will change
• You'll lose competitive advantages

Success Cases

• Zynga: Early layout on Facebook platform, became a $1 billion company
• Lenny's Podcast: Early adoption of Substack, received disproportionate returns

Practical Execution Strategies

What You Can Do Now

1. Build relationships: Try to establish priority partnerships with OpenAI
2. Prepare to pivot: Once the platform launches, be able to quickly adjust strategy
3. Watch for signals: Closely monitor ChatGPT's announcements and updates

Exit Strategy After Entering the Game

Once you're in the game, immediately start thinking about how to exit:

• How to own important parts of the user experience?
• How to accumulate specialized data and context?
• How to create different types of micro-network effects?

Key Success Factors for AI Adoption

Based on Reforge's collaboration experience with hundreds of companies, Brian shares key insights on AI transformation:

1. The Power of Hard Constraints

The most successful companies all set hard constraints:

• Team size limits (e.g., can only have 1/5 of competitors)
• Prohibit new hiring unless proving AI cannot complete the task
• Require product reviews to include 3 prototypes

2. Handling Resistors

Every transformation has three types of people:

• Catalysts: Leading change
• Converters: Need structure and guidance
• Anchors: People dragging their feet

The most successful companies set hard deadlines for anchors: either transform or leave.

3. Systems Thinking

AI adoption is a systems problem:

• Identify the slowest parts (usually legal, procurement, etc.)
• Attack bottlenecks, not just accelerate one part
• Product output is a function of design, PM, and engineering

Conclusion: Time is Everything

Brian's prediction is clear: we will see the emergence of this new growth channel within the next 6 months.

For entrepreneurs, this means:

1. Must participate in the game: Cannot choose to opt out
2. Focused investment: Choose one platform and go all-in
3. Quick action: The opportunity window is shrinking

As Brian says: "This isn't about predicting whether ChatGPT will win, it's about understanding the cycle and evaluating how to place your bets."

In the AI era, companies that can quickly build moats on new platforms will gain historic competitive advantages. Now is the time to start preparing.

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This article is based on a deep interview with Brian Balfour on Lenny's Podcast. Brian is the founder and CEO of Reforge, former VP of Growth at HubSpot, with over 10 years of experience in product and growth.

Related Resources

• Reforge Official Website
• Brian Balfour's Blog
• Unsolicited Feedback Podcast
• Lenny's Newsletter

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About the Author: Jet is the founder of NativePod, focusing on AI and voice technology. Through natural voice translation, making global premium podcasts accessible to everyone.